Military Statistics Called Into Question

September 6, 2007
Military Statistics Called Into Question

The U.S. military's claim that violence has decreased sharply in Iraq in recent months has come under scrutiny from many experts within and outside the government, who contend that some of the underlying statistics are questionable and selectively ignore negative trends.

The intelligence community has its own problems with military calculations. Intelligence analysts computing aggregate levels of violence against civilians for the NIE puzzled over how the military designated attacks as combat, sectarian or criminal, according to one senior intelligence official in Washington. "If a bullet went through the back of the head, it's sectarian," the official said. "If it went through the front, it's criminal."

Recent estimates by the media, outside groups and some government agencies have called the military's findings into question. The Associated Press last week counted 1,809 civilian deaths in August, making it the highest monthly total this year, with 27,564 civilians killed overall since the AP began collecting data in April 2005.

The GAO report found that "average number of daily attacks against civilians have remained unchanged from February to July 2007," a conclusion that the military said was skewed because it did not include dramatic, up-to-date information from August.

Iraq body count running at double pace

August 25, 2007
Iraq body count running at double pace

BAGHDAD - This year's U.S. troop buildup has succeeded in bringing violence in Baghdad down from peak levels, but the death toll from sectarian attacks around the country is running nearly double the pace from a year ago.

Some of the recent bloodshed appears the result of militant fighters drifting into parts of northern Iraq, where they have fled after U.S.-led offensives. Baghdad, however, still accounts for slightly more than half of all war-related killings — the same percentage as a year ago, according to figures compiled by The Associated Press.

Intelligence report at odds with U.S. policies on Iraq

August 24, 2007
Intelligence report at odds with U.S. policies on Iraq

BAGHDAD: The U.S. National Intelligence Estimate has effectively discredited the dominant American hypothesis of the past seven months: that safer streets, secured by additional troops, would create enough political calm for Iraq's leaders to reconcile.

They have failed to do so in part, suggests the report, which was released Thursday, because the security gains remain too modest to reverse Iraq's dynamic of violence and fear. Baghdad after all, remains a place where women at the market avoid buying river fish for fear that they've been eating bodies.

But just as important, according to Iraqi political analysts and officials, Iraq has become a cellular nation, dividing and redividing, where the constituency for chaos now outnumbers the constituency for compromise.

A new intelligence report paints a bleak picture of Iraq

August 23, 2007
A new intelligence report paints a bleak picture of Iraq

WASHINGTON — A new assessment of Iraq by U.S. intelligence agencies provides little evidence that the American troop "surge" has accomplished its goals and predicts that the U.S.-backed government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will become "more precarious" in the months ahead.

A declassified summary of the report released Thursday said that violence remains high, warns that U.S. alliances with former Sunni Muslim insurgents could undercut the central government and says that political compromises are "unlikely to emerge" in the next 12 months.

Perhaps most strikingly, U.S. intelligence analysts concluded that factions and political players in and outside Iraq already are maneuvering in expectation of a drawdown of U.S. troops — moves that could later heighten sectarian bloodshed.

Despite U.S. Assertions, Terrorists Thriving in Iraq, Senior Military Official Says

July 12, 2007
Despite U.S. Assertions, Terrorists Thriving in Iraq, Senior Military Official Says

A military intelligence report that concludes al Qaeda has largely restored itself to pre- 9/11 strength will be the focus of a meeting at the White House today. The meeting was called to discuss a pending National Intelligence Estimate.

While the military has maintained that al Qaeda is on the run in Iraq, by any number of measures the terror group and its affiliates are as strong as ever, and June was the most violent month since the start of the war, a senior U.S. military official told ABC News.

Al-Qaida stronger than ever

July 12, 2007
Al-Qaida stronger than ever

Al-Qaida Has Rebuilt, U.S. Intel Warns

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A new threat assessment from U.S. counterterrorism analysts says that al-Qaida has used its safe haven along the Afghan-Pakistan border to restore its operating capabilities to a level unseen since the months before Sept. 11, 2001. A counterterrorism official familiar with a five-page summary of the document -- titled "Al-Qaida better positioned to strike the West" -- called it a stark appraisal. The analysis will be part of a broader meeting at the White House on Thursday about an upcoming National Intelligence Estimate.

Intelligence estimate cites increasing peril in Iraq

February 2, 2007
Intelligence estimate cites increasing peril in Iraq

WASHINGTON - A new National Intelligence Estimate paints a grim view of the violence and political situation facing the United States in Iraq, according to officials familiar with a much-anticipated, collaborative analysis from all 16 U.S. spy agencies.

The Office of the National Intelligence Director was releasing an unclassified summary of the document - entitled "Prospects for Iraq's Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead" - on Friday. President Bush was briefed on its conclusions on Thursday.