44% of Voters are Independents - Tilt Toward Democrats

September 25, 2007
44% of Voters are Independents - Tilt Toward Democrats

In AP-Ipsos polling this summer, 44 percent of those surveyed said initially they had no major party affiliation. When pressed, most said they generally back one particular party, usually Democrats. That left 17 percent as true independents, more than enough to tilt the balance in the presidential and many congressional races.

Independent Voters Swing Dems' Way

July 5, 2007
Independent Voters Swing Dems' Way

A major survey [pdf] seeking to identify characteristics of independent voters, conducted by the Washington Post, the Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard University, found that unaligned voters view the Democratic Party favorably by a 55-41 margin, and the Republican Party unfavorably, 55-41. Independents were asked which party they prefer on 10 different issues, and they chose the Democrats on nine issues, including healthcare, 48-20; the situation in Iraq, 44-28; global warming, 49-21; and on such social issues as abortion and gay marriage, 43-26. The only issue on which independents preferred Republicans was "the U.S. campaign against terrorism," 39 GOP, 30 Democrat.

"The Republican Party is fragmented, and it really poses a problem," said Tony Fabrizio, a Republican pollster, currently unaffiliated with any candidate, who recently conducted a study study [pdf] comparing the GOP electorate of 1997 to that of 2007. Fabrizio found, furthermore, that the median age of Republican voters has risen substantially over the past 10 years: in 1997, 28 percent were over 55; in 2007, 41 percent were. The percentage of Republicans between the age of 18 and 34 has dropped from 25 to 17, and those between 34 and 55 dropped from 44 percent to 40 percent. This suggests that, at least in the short run, Republican ranks face the threat of depletion.