Democratic Nominee Will Have Edge in Fall Even If Economy Turns

March 24, 2008
Democratic Nominee Will Have Edge in Fall Even If Economy Turns

Even if a recovery begins this summer, Americans won't feel the difference until much later. That's why when the polls open Nov. 4, the Republicans, who have controlled the White House since 2001 and Congress for much of that time, will have ceded a key advantage to the Democrats.

Recessions shaped four presidential elections in the past half-century -- in 1960, 1976, 1980 and 1992. Each time, the candidate from the party trying to retake the White House won. A model that uses economic data to predict presidential race outcomes has the Democrats getting 52 percent of the votes cast for the two major party candidates, says Ray Fair, the Yale University professor who developed it.